Don’t Always Trust Your Judgment

Judging by the photo I've provided you above, the moon is roughly the same size as a water tower. Since the evidence is right there in front of you, I assume you agree, right?

Why are you hesitating? Don't you believe your own eyes?

Perhaps it's because you know that pictures can lie and that the moon is definitely much bigger than a water tower.

Excellent. You are correct on both counts.

What if I asked you a few general questions about water towers? Could you answer them based on this photo? Before you answer, take a look at this second photograph.

Yes, it's very foggy, but I bet you are starting to realize that's not a water tower after all. It's the staging structure for a rocket.

Do you feel as though I tricked you? I hope not. Every day, you make judgments based on incomplete facts and on images that distort reality. Sports crowds go crazy when one camera angle appears to show that their team was "cheated"out of a score. Entire cities erupt when a single image appears to show an egregious crime.

We react with anger because of the tone of someone else's voice. "How dare you talk to me like that?" you may say, when in actuality the other person thought s/he was communicating in a calm and rational way. But the tone you "heard" was influenced by your (incorrect) perception that the other person was undercutting you.

The older I get, the less I know

When I was in my late twenties, an SVP in my company told me, "The older I get, the less I know." He wasn't slowing down or becoming senile. To the contrary, he was becoming wiser. That company tested every single new marketing initiative, and after three decades of testing, the SVP realized that his gut instincts were often proven wrong.

In retrospect, I realized that he was trying to tell young guys like me to be slower to form opinions. Intelligence wasn't enough to find the truth; we needed actual facts and evidence.

But no matter how many facts you gather, some of your decisions and perceptions are going to be wrong. Does this mean you should be paralyzed with indecision?

Nope.

Just recognize that you won't always be right. Be open-minded, even after you make a decision. If someone proves that you made the wrong decision, be grateful... and learn from the experience.

Our world is far more complex than any of us can grasp. Even you.